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Global MFG - Jan 17, 2023

What's behind the growing number of manufacturing jobs in the US?

Dom Difurio | Get It Made

自2020年初新冠疫情爆发以来的几年里,美国制造业的就业机会减少了.S. have recovered quicker than ever seen in modern history.

Peaking in 1979, U.S. manufacturing reached something of a precipice in the 1980s.

The U.S. remained a goods-producing country. While output was relatively steady, fewer Americans were employed to mine metals, assemble automobiles, 并在十年内为国防部门整合军事技术.

But from the mid-20th century through 2000, 美国制造业的工作岗位在减少,服务业的工作岗位在增加,服务业现在是该国经济的一个标志性部门,仅次于其高度发达的科技部门.

20世纪80年代以双重衰退拉开了序幕——与今天艰难的经济状况没有什么不同,这是由海外资源争夺战和旨在对抗高通胀的紧缩货币政策引发的. 当时制造业几乎占美国就业岗位的三分之一, by 1982, 自大萧条以来最严重的经济衰退摧毁了商品制造业的就业机会.

The manufacturing sector accounted for an outsized 90% of the job losses, according to historical Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The biggest losses at the time were suffered in the mining industry, 哪里有五分之三与开采关键资源(如铁和铜)相关的工人被解雇.

如今,制造业的就业人数远低于1979年的近2000万. 但根据2022年11月的初步数据,就业人数达到近1300万,不仅从COVID-19的衰退中恢复过来,而且达到了该行业自2009年以来的最高就业水平.

How did the U.S. 管理好它,是国家在国内制造的新时代?

Get It Made analysed BLS Current Employment Statistics data 看看最近制造业就业人数的激增,并将其与过去十年增加更多制造业就业机会的事件时间表相对照. The BLS data is based on a survey, so true employment values may vary.

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Line chart showing manufacturing employment over time, 自21世纪初或更早的时候,哪一种价格大幅下跌,但又呈上升趋势.

‍Manufacturing jobs exceed pre-COVID levels

In previous economic cycles, the U.S. 制造业在衰退期间失去了工作岗位,但在衰退之后又重新获得了工作岗位——但需要注意的是,工作岗位从未恢复到衰退前的水平. This was true of manufacturing job losses in the 1980s.

The challenges facing the U.S. workforce in 1980—manufacturing representing a major portion—are numerous麻省理工学院(Massachusetts Institute of Technology)教授托马斯. Kochan. They involve the globalisation of business, 在汽车和金属行业,来自其他国家的竞争加剧, 技术进步使更少的工人生产同样的产品, 以及将体力劳动外包给中国等货币较弱的国家的相对负担能力.

在COVID-19经济衰退中,制造商面临的挑战稍微简单一些:随着病毒的传播,商界领袖不确定美国人何时会恢复消费.

但当政府介入并扩大了工人的失业救济后,这种担忧消散了, stimulus payments, and forgivable payroll loans for businesses. Consumer spending roared back to life 到2020年底,美国人渴望的是商品而不是服务. 他们不仅抢购了许多制造商在2020年春季重点生产的医用口罩,还抢购了家具, vehicles, and homes.

An assembly line at an auto manufacturing plant.

Federal auto bailout and post-recession recovery

Part of what made the Great Recession of 2008 so great, so to speak, was the depth and prolonged nature of the crisis. 之后的就业恢复是稳定的,但比之前的衰退要慢. It might have been slower if the U.S. 没有提供800亿美元的资金来救助美国的大型汽车制造商吗. One study placed the jobs saved as a result of the stimulus at 1.5 million.

接下来的几年被认为是复苏,这导致了2020年的衰退. 随着美国人重建信用评分并进行大宗采购,消费需求缓慢回升like a new vehicle—they may have otherwise put off during the recession. 这有助于为组装最新、最好的卡车和suv的美国工人提供制造业就业机会.

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A stimulus check from the pandemic.

Pandemic relief legislation

When the U.S. entered this most recent COVID-19-induced recession, manufacturing jobs were impacted comparably to other industries. Car manufacturing stopped almost overnight, as leading automakers shut down assembly plants in the spring and dealerships closed their doors. In food production, 由于工人生病,有关工人死亡的新闻报道在有线电视新闻中传播,肉类加工厂关闭了运营.

The rebound, however, was swift.

大多数经济学家将就业的快速反弹归因于国会通过的大规模援助计划. The U.S. government issued $4.5 trillion in total pandemic aid, 其中最大的一部分流向了负责就业的机构——小企业管理局和劳工部. 它为工资发放提供了可免除贷款,扩大了失业救济,以及 tens of millions specifically aimed at getting manufacturers back to producing goods. 

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8月11日,美国总统拜登在白宫南草坪上签署了《2022年chip和科学法案》. 9, 2022, in Washington DC.

Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and CHIPS and Science Act

在2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)衰退之后,两党通过了几项法律,为未来几年制造业就业的走向提供了指引.

Congress passed the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act in 2021 and the CHIPS and Science Act in 2022. 《威尼斯注册送38元》将为制造业注入新的活力 unprecedented $550 billion in capital through 2026 to build and repair bridges, roads, highways, rural internet infrastructure, and water treatment facilities.

The CHIPS and Science Act aims to rejuvenate the U.S. 制造业部门与中国等外国竞争,并保持电脑芯片等关键商品对美国消费者的稳定供应. A shortage 大流行开始时,电脑芯片的短缺阻碍了从电脑到汽车等各种产品的制造供应链.

当CHIPS法案通过时,总部位于纽约的一家汽车零部件制造商的首席执行官 expressed relief他说:“多年来,我的行业一直受供应链的支配."


 
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